Pick Your Opponent

I was rewatching bits of last night’s GOP Presidential Debate this afternoon. It was certainly more-watchable than past debates. I was very impressed by Fmr. Governor Huckabee’s performance–he handled himself quite well going toe-to-toe with Congressman Paul, and the “Outsource to FedEx” analogy was classic–but apparently Sen. McCain was declared the winner. Peggy Noonan seems to agree with me more, writing in Friday’s Wall Street Journal:

Mike Huckabee, and for this I [heart] Huckabee, shot back that history will judge whether we were right to go in, but for now, “we’re there.” He echoed Colin Powell: We broke it, now we own it. “Congressman, we are one nation. We can’t be divided. . . . If we make a mistake, we make it as a single country, the United States of America, not the divided states of America.” David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network says he doesn’t know why Mr. Huckabee isn’t in the top tier. I wonder too. Maybe he is and we don’t know it.  

I found the whole “Crack a joke at Sen. Thompson’s expense” part unnecessary and a bit demeaning to the office, but entertaining nonetheless. What really stuck out to me though was what seemed like Mayor Giuliani’s silent campaign for his opponent, Fmr. Gov. Romney.

In the hours leading into the debate, much was made about the imminent clash between Giuliani and Romney over border security, immigration, and “sanctuary cities.” Mayor Giuliani clearly has the stronger track record and plan on these issues, and many I spoke with prior to the debate were anxiously waiting to see the hole Rudy would tear for Mitt. But then…nothing. Giuliani certainly came out on top in the exchange, but he went quite easy on the fact that there were three official sanctuary cities in Massachusetts and the Governor’s lack of a border plan. There was enough on Rudy’s website and YouTube channel to completely discredit the Governor, but alas, nothing.

What really drew my attention to this was in Mayor Giuliani’s opening statement (FF to 7:20), where he said:

I think [this nomination's] going to come down to experience. This is not a time that the United States should be electing someone who’s gonna to get on-the-job training. You need people with executive experience, and my real concern is, you’ll have three leading Democratic candidates, none of which have ever run a city, a state or a business. [...] America’s at war. America’s got some big problems. It’s not the time for on-the-job training as an executive.  

This quote is an explicit attack on Democratic candidates, Senators Clinton and Obama and Fmr. Senator Edwards, none of whom have held an executive role in the public or private sector. Twenty-four hours removed from the debate, however, I can’t help but see an implicit attack against the entire GOP field save for himself, Fmr. Governor Huckabee, and the successful CEO Governor Romney. While it’s true that Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all lack political executive experience, so do Senators McCain, Thompson, and Brownback, and Congressmen Paul, Hunter, and Tancredo. Did the Mayor not just implicitly break Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment: “Thou shalt not talk ill of a former Republican?”

Whether or not Giuliani is consciously trying to bring the nomination down to he and Romney, it does bring up an interesting question: who would Rudy most want to run against?It’s no great secret that the GOP race is a three-person race: Mayor Giuliani, Senator McCain, and the last “Christian” Conservative left standing. Mayor Giuliani’s success or failure in this primary will largely be based on his ability to convince the Christian right–the traditional bread and butter of the GOP–to vote for him. Of that group–predominately comprised of Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee–who does the Mayor stand the greatest chance of beating? The answer is clearly Romney.While Romney has proven to be a juggernaut in the world of fundraising, he is riddled (to different extents) by the same problems which will preclude many evangelicals from voting for Rudy. Allow a few examples:

• Rudy is Catholic; Romney is Mormon.
• Rudy is pro-choice; Romney is a recent pro-life convert.
• Rudy is percieved as anti-second Amendment; Romney hosed the gun rights lobby while Governor.
• Rudy is pro-civil unions; Romney was Governor of the first and only state to legalize same-sex marriage.
• Rudy is seen as untrustworthy in relation to appointing constructionist judges; Romney is seen as all-around shiftless.

Maybe its my inner conspiracy theorist itching to get out, but it seems as though Rudy is purposefully restraining himself in these early debates from burying Romney in order to force the mid- to late-Bible belt primaries to choose between a nominal Catholic and an avowed Mormon.Not gonna lie, “I’m not even mad, I’m impressed…”